Market Update
Q3 2026 Market Update: Incline Village & Crystal Bay
$11M
Highest Sale
757 Champagne Rd
$2,649/sq ft
Top $/sq ft
120 State Route 28 Unit #47
105
Closed Sales
Q3 2026
34
Under Contract / Pending
Heading into Q4
How did the Incline Village and Crystal Bay real estate market perform in Q3 2026? Incline Village and Crystal Bay recorded 105 closed sales in Q3 2026, up from 84 in Q2, with $251.9 million in total volume and a top sale of $11,000,000 on the Eastern Slope.
Q2 ended with 36 properties under contract or pending, and four of the five largest in that queue closed this quarter. Q3 delivered 105 closed sales across Incline Village and Crystal Bay: 46 single-family homes, 57 condominiums, and 2 lots. The quarter had no single headline sale on the scale of Q1’s lakefront trophies. Instead, six properties closed at $9,000,000 or more, and activity was spread across nearly every neighborhood in 89451 and 89402.
The median single-family sale this quarter was $2,512,500. The median condominium sale was $1,030,000.
The Top of the Market
Q3 had depth at the top rather than one record sale. Six closings landed between $9,250,000 and $11,000,000:
- 757 Champagne Road — A 1988-built Eastern Slope estate of 8,935 square feet closed at $11,000,000, the quarter’s highest sale.
- 120 State Route 28 Unit #47 — This Crystal Bay Lakefront condominium sold for $10,650,000. At $2,649 per square foot, it carried the highest price per square foot of any Q3 closing.
- 797 Ida Court — Under contract at the end of Q2, this Jennifer neighborhood estate closed at $9,850,000 after 814 days on market.
- 571 Dale Drive — A Lower Tyner home closed at $9,600,000.
- 984 Sand Iron Drive — A Championship Golf Course property sold for $9,500,000 in 29 days.
- 539 Cole Circle — A 2025 build in Lower Tyner closed at $9,250,000 in 27 days. At $1,874 per square foot, it led all single-family sales on that measure.
Twelve properties closed at $5,000,000 or more this quarter. Three others from the Q2 under-contract list also closed: 951 Divot Court at $6,750,000, 886 Freels Peak Drive at $5,600,000, and 919 Driver Way at $4,900,000.
Breaking Down the Submarkets
Here’s where Q3 buyers concentrated across Incline Village and Crystal Bay:
- Lower Tyner — The busiest single-family neighborhood this quarter, with nine home sales ranging from $1,699,000 on Saddlehorn Drive to $9,600,000 on Dale Drive.
- Ponderosa — Five home sales with a median of $4,200,000. 563 Knotty Pine Drive led at $8,500,000.
- Lakeview Subdivision — Four homes closed between $2,650,000 and $7,850,000, plus a lot on Mays Boulevard at $2,350,000.
- Jennifer — Seven home sales spanning $912,000 to the $9,850,000 Ida Court estate, with a median of $1,500,000.
- Championship Golf Course — Ten closings, mostly condominiums, from $640,000 up to the $9,500,000 Sand Iron Drive sale.
- Lakefront Incline — Three condominium sales at 999 and 501 Lakeshore Boulevard closed between $3,525,000 and $4,000,000, at $1,813 to $2,404 per square foot.
- Tyrolian Village (Skiway) — Fifteen closings, primarily condominiums, from $537,500 to $2,550,000 at 400 Fairview Boulevard.
- Central South of Hwy 28 — The most active area by count, with 21 condominium sales from $550,000 to $2,550,000. The high was 150 Juanita Drive Unit #3 in Village Highlands.
Q3 2026 Sales at a Glance
| Neighborhood | High Sale | Low Sale | Notable Metric |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eastern Slope | $11,000,000 | $865,000 | Quarter's highest sale |
| Crystal Bay Lakefront | $10,650,000 | — | Single sale; highest $/sq ft ($2,649) |
| Lower Tyner | $9,600,000 | $1,699,000 | Nine home sales |
| Ponderosa | $8,500,000 | $1,875,000 | $4.2M median home sale |
| Lakefront Incline | $4,000,000 | $3,525,000 | Three condos at $1,813 to $2,404/sq ft |
| Central South of Hwy 28 | $2,550,000 | $550,000 | 21 condo sales, most of any area |
| Tyrolian Village (Skiway) | $2,550,000 | $537,500 | Quarter's lowest sale |
Year to Date: Single-Family Homes, January Through September
Stepping back to the first nine months of 2026, single-family homes in Incline Village and Crystal Bay are ahead of last year on every volume measure, per Incline Village MLS data compiled for the Sierra Sotheby’s International Realty Q3 report:
| January to September | 2025 | 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Median sold price | $2,145,500 | $2,500,000 | +17% |
| Average sold price | $3,213,988 | $4,162,488 | +30% |
| Homes sold | 116 | 131 | +13% |
| Volume sold | $372.8M | $545.3M | +46% |
| Average days on market | 104 | 103 | -1% |
The average sold price rose faster than the median because of activity at the top. Year to date, 21% of single-family sales closed at $5,000,000 or more, 60% between $1,500,000 and $5,000,000, and 19% under $1,500,000. The median is the better guide for most homeowners.
Momentum Heading Into Q4
There are 34 properties under contract or pending heading into Q4, compared with 36 at the end of Q2. Nine of them are listed at $4,000,000 or more, including:
- 500 Gonowabie Road — A Crystal Bay Lakefront home under contract at $12,250,000, or $3,800 per square foot.
- 887 S Dyer Circle — A 2024 build under contract at $6,000,000.
- 859 Ophir Peak Road — A Lakeview Subdivision home under contract at $5,200,000.
- 854 Lakeshore Boulevard — Another Lakeview Subdivision property, under contract at $4,995,000.
- 582 Douglas Court — An Upper Tyner home under contract at $4,595,000.
- 447 Lakeshore Boulevard — A Lakefront Incline lot under contract at $4,500,000.
Days on market lengthened as Q3 went on. The average for single-family sales rose from 67 in July to 114 in August and 159 in September. Last year, the average held at 103 days in October and November, then climbed to 162 in December and 196 in January.
What This Means for You
There are 123 homes and condominiums for sale across Incline Village and Crystal Bay today: 68 single-family homes and 55 condominiums. That is down from 155 at the end of Q2. How much choice you have depends on your price range:
| Price Range | Active Listings | Q3 Sales | Months of Supply |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under $1.5M | 63 | 54 | 3.5 |
| $1.5M to $5M | 37 | 37 | 3.0 |
| $5M and up | 23 | 12 | 5.8 |
For sellers between $1.5M and $5M, the market sold as many homes in Q3 as are listed today. Well-prepared homes in that range should not need to wait for spring. Above $5M, buyers have nearly six months of supply to choose from, so pricing to recent closed sales on your street matters more than the asking prices around you. The Q4 seasonal slowdown is real, but it shows up as longer marketing times, not an absence of buyers.
For buyers, the fall and early winter months often bring motivated sellers and less competition. Several listings over $5M have been on the market more than 100 days. That can create room to negotiate, particularly on homes that need updating. Under $5M, expect well-priced homes to keep moving through the fall, and be ready to act when the right one comes on.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is it worth listing my Incline Village home in the fall, or should I wait for spring?
Why did the average sale price rise 30% this year while the median rose 17%?
What does it mean that 34 properties are under contract heading into Q4?
About the Author: Hayden Haffey is an Incline Village resident and Realtor specializing in the hyper-local submarkets of the Nevada North Shore. With a background in family consultancy, Hayden prioritizes an educational, data-driven approach over high-pressure sales, helping clients navigate the complexities of Lake Tahoe real estate with clarity and intentionality. When he isn’t analyzing market trends, you’ll likely find him skiing, mountain biking, or enjoying the lake with his wife and two daughters.
Hayden Haffey, Global Real Estate Advisor, Sierra Sotheby’s International Realty